ÐÐÒµ¾Û½¹
½ðÊô¡¢Ï𽺺ÍÏËά¼ÛÇ®¼áͦ
ȪԴ£ºCNBM Ðû²¼Ê±¼ä£º2003-12-30 ¾¼ÃѧÈËѶϢ²¿(EconomistIntelli-genceUnit£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬EIU)×î½üÌåÏÖ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬Ô¤¼Æ°üÀ¨½ðÊô¡¢Ï𽺺ÍÏËÎ¬ÖÆÆ·ÔÚÄÚµÄһЩÉÌÆ·¼ÛÇ®½«ÔÚδÀ´Á½Äê¼á³Ö¼áͦ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬²¢½«ÑÓÐø×Ô2001ÄêβÕö¿ªµÄÉÏÕÇÇ÷ÊÆ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£
EIUµÄ×ÊÉîÆÊÎöʦÅÁÀïÌåÏÖ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬¼Ì2003ÄêEIU¹¤ÒµÔÖÊÁÏ(IRM)Ö¸Êý´ó·ùÑïÉýÖ®ºó£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬2004Äê¸ÃÖ¸ÊýÁϽ«½øÒ»²½ÔöÌí3.1£¥¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£
2005Äê½ðÊô¼ÛǮԤ¼Æ½«ÉÏÉý4.2£¥£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬ÓëIRMÖ¸ÊýÒ»Ö¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£EIUÖ¸³ö£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬Ö»¹Ü2005Äê»ù±¾½ðÊô¿ÉÄÜÆÕ±é×ßÇ¿£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬µ«Ô¤¼Æ²»ÊÇËùÓнðÊô¶¼½«ÉÏÕÇ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£2005ÄêÄø¼Û»òÐí»á´ó·ùϵø£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬ÂÁ¼Û½«¼ÌÐø×ßÈí¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÖйúÂÁ²úÁ¿´óÔö½«µ¼ÖÂ2004ÄêºÍ2005ÄêÈ«ÇòÂÁ¹©¹ýÓÚÇ󡣡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÍÔ¤¼Æ½«Çó¹ýÓÚ¹©¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£
ͼÛÔ¤¼Æ½«ÔÚ2004ÄêÉÏÕÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬¶øËæ×ʩӦ×îÏÈÓöÉÏÐèÇ󣬣¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬2005Äêͼ۽«³ÖÎÈ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Äø¹©Ó¦Ç·È±½«Ò»Á¬µ½2004Ä꣬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬ÖÁÉÙÖÁ2005ÄêÍ·¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¶ø¼ÛǮԤ¼Æ½«½øÒ»²½ÉÏÕÇ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£
EIU³Æ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬×ÔÈ»Ïð½º¿â´æ½«½øÒ»²½»ØÂ䣬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬Î´À´Á½Ä꽺¼Û½«¼ÌÐøÉÏÕÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬µ«ÕÇ·ù¿ÉÄÜȱ·¦½ñÄêºÍ2002Äê¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£
EIUÌåÏÖ£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬ËäȻʯÓÍÊä³ö¹ú×éÖ¯(OPEC)ÔÚ2003Äê9ÔÂβÒâÍâ¾öÒé¼õ²ú£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬µ«2004Äê´ó²¿·Öʱ¼äÓͼÛÈÔ½«Êܵ½¹©Ó¦¹ýÊ£µÄÒÖÖÆ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ËäȻԤ¼ÆÓͼÛÔÚ2005Äê½øÒ»²½Ïµø£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬µ«ÓÉÓÚOPECÖÂÁ¦ÓÚ¿ØÖÆÊг¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬£¬ÓͼÛϵø·ù¶È½«ÓÐËùïÔÌ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£
